HGCA	April 10 2012 / Vol 6 Issue 40

Market Report

USDA have today cut the global maize end stock forecast to 122.71Mt, down almost 2Mt, due to lower Chinese stocks. Global soyabean production in 2011/12 is reduced by 5Mt to 240.15Mt. See the full USDA report here. A record 7% of the US maize area was planted by 8 April (3% last year), increasing the likelihood of the intended area being planted. Spring wheat planting is also at a record pace with improvements to winter wheat crop conditions, although there are early concerns over dryness. Rain benefited EU crops last week; however France Agri-Mer and Coceral both suggested that dryness / frost have already impacted crops. Strong US export sales of both soyabeans and grains also added support on Thursday. UK wheat futures for May closed on Thursday at Ł171.75/t, down 1.7% on 30 March and was trading at Ł171.25/t by lunchtime today.

The Russian Government has begun intervention sales - it plans to sell 2Mt of grain harvested in 2005, 2008 and 2009 in a bid to stabilise domestic prices. Russia's Agriculture Ministry expect grain closing stocks of 18Mt, representing 15-17% of annual output. Official estimates suggest that Russia exported 22Mt of grain by the end of March. The total season forecast is 27-28Mt. Ukraine may re-plant 2.3Mha of winter grain area, according to UKrAgroConsult. Officials estimate the figure between 3-3.5Mha. This could result in a noticeable increase in maize plantings. Spring grains have been planted on 825Kha, 21% of the planned area. This is higher than the 552Kha planted this time last year, but behind the five-year average of 1,120Kha.

Summary
of the week

Event	Possible Impact	Price Effect
USDA cuts global maize stock estimates	Lower global feed grain availability	Bullish
Strong start to US maize planting	Forecasted area increase becomes reality	Bearish
Rainfall in parts of Europe last week	Dry weather concerns ease	Bearish

Feed Wheat Price /t Summary

	ex-farm	del EA	milling prem	fob EC	LIFFE
spot	Ł169.40 down	Ł173.50 up	Ł8.00 (North West, May)	Ł177.00 down	Ł171.75 down

UK delivered prices were mixed last week. In E.Anglia, May feed wheat was up Ł0.50/t at Ł174.50/t, with the harvest price down Ł2/t at Ł154/t. Milling wheat trade was thin with May NW bread down Ł0.50/t at Ł185.50/t. Delivered OSR prices saw double-digit increases with May E.Anglia up Ł12/t at Ł396/t.

Market Information out this week. Results from this year's haulage survey, will be published in Prospects - out Thursday. May 2012 options on LIFFE wheat expire on Thursday (12 April) with those on Paris futures expiring on 16 April. For more on upcoming information, click here.

UK delivered prices

as at Thursday 05 April 2012, Ł/tonne

	E Anglia		North-West		Avon		Yorkshire		C Scotland
	Spot	change	Spot	change	Spot	change	Spot	change	Spot	change
Bread Wheat	176.50	- 1.50	184.00	- 1.50	179.50	unch	-	-	-	-
Feed Wheat	173.50	+ 0.50	177.00	+ 0.50	173.50	unch	174.50	+ 1.00	-	-
Feed Barley	169.00	n/c	-	-	168.00	n/c	-	-	-	-
Oilseed Rape	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	May-12	change	May-12	change	May-12	change	May-12	change	May-12	change
Bread Wheat	177.50	- 1.50	185.50	- 0.50	180.50	unch	-	-	-	-
Feed Wheat	174.50	+ 0.50	177.50	unch	174.00	- 0.50	-	-	-	-
Feed Barley	170.00	n/c	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oilseed Rape	396.00	+ 12.00	400.00	+ 14.00	-	-	394.00	+ 12.00	392.00	+ 12.00

UK Usage Data - 34 weeks to 25 February 2012 - UK flour millers (Inc. starch and bioethanol producers) used 3.971Mt of wheat, down 8.1% from the same period last season. Usage of imported wheat fell 13.2% to 0.461Mt. Bread flour production was up 1.7% at 1.929Mt with biscuit flour down 1.5% to 0.392Mt. Brewers, Maltsters and Distillers used 1.202Mt of barley, up 6.7% and the highest level since 2003/04.
World Market News
US - Informa Economics has increased its forecast for US maize plantings to 96.4M acres from a previous estimate of 95.5M acres (USDA: 95.9). The soyabean estimate was also increased, to 74.2M acres (USDA: 73.9).
Brazil - Local crop analyst Agroconsult has reduced its soyabean harvest estimate to 65.2Mt (67.1Mt last month).

Argentina - The Rosario Grain Exchange has decreased Argentina's expected soyabean harvest to 43.1Mt from 44.5Mt forecasted earlier as the affects of the drought become clear, particularly in the Northern provinces.
Russia - According to the First Deputy Prime Minister, Russia is set to become the second largest wheat exporter. It is expected that Russia will export 26-27Mt of grain this season and the proportion of wheat exported will make it the number two wheat exporter after the US.
Australia - Wheat exports reached 2.4Mt in February, the Australian Bureau of statistics said. This was a nine-year high and around twice the exports seen a year ago, facilitated by heavy rains which increased crop yields. However, flooding in New South Wales and Victoria halted shipping in March.

Prices

UK corn returns prices

as at Thursday 05 April 2012, ex farm Ł/tonne

	Wheat			Barley		Oats
	Bread	Other	Feed	P Malting	Feed	Feed
South East	-	-	-	-	-	-
South West	-	-	-	-	-	-
Midlands	-	-	166.60	-	-	-
Eastern	172.90	-	169.40	-	165.80	-
North East	-	-	164.40	-	164.00	-
North West	-	-	-	-	-	-
Scotland	-	-	171.60	-	-	-
Northern Ireland	-	-	-	-	-	-
United Kingdom	172.90	-	169.40	-	164.90	-
Change on week	n/c	-	- 0.80	-	+ 5.70	-

UK feed ingredient prices

full information available online

Intervention price

full information available online

UK Trade Data

full information available online

HGCA Web Tools

Markets Webpage - hourly price updates

Seed Cost Calculator - compare seed costs

Knowledge Centre - useful market information

Farm Income Monitor - potential farm incomes

Currency (as at mid-day Tuesday)

Ł1 = $1.5821	down
Ł1 = EUR1.2107	up
EUR1 = $1.3066	down

Export Prices

as at Friday 06 April 2012 Fob/tonne

		$	change	Month	Basis
Premium Milling Wheats	Canadian No.1 CWRS	384.37	+ 24.62	May	St Lawrence
	US DNS No.2 14%	-	-
Good Milling Wheats	US HRW No.2	283.60	- 14.90	Apr	US Gulf
Other Milling Wheats	US SRW No.2	261.60	- 5.80	Apr	US Gulf
	French, unsubsidised	286.00	- 11.70	Apr	Rouen
	Ukrainian, Milling Class 3	-	-
Other Wheats	Ukrainian, Feed	-	-
	UK, Feed unsubsidised	-	-
Maize	US No.3 Yellow Corn	279.50	+ 2.70	Apr	US Gulf
Canola	Canadian Canola	662.40	- 0.40	Apr	In-store Vancouver

Futures Prices as at Monday 09 April 2012
LIFFE Wheat
Ł/tonne change
May-12 171.75 - 3.00
Nov-12 157.05 - 4.65
Nov-13 153.00 - 2.00
MATIF Wheat
Euro/tonne change
May-12 211.25 - 1.50
Nov-12 204.75 - 2.00
Nov-13 197.25 + 0.25
MATIF Malting Barley
Euro/tonne change
May-12 256.00 - 3.00
Nov-12 231.00 - 1.50
Nov-13 234.75 + 3.50
MATIF Rapeseed
Euro/tonne change
May-12 504.00 + 13.25
Nov-12 480.70 + 12.20
Nov-13 439.50 + 6.50
Chicago Wheat - SRW
$/tonne change
May-12 236.24 - 6.52
Dec-12 251.49 - 10.10
Dec-13 273.71 - 4.14
Minneapolis Wheat - DNS
$/tonne change
May-12 311.19 + 3.49
Dec-12 299.34 - 2.66
Dec-13 292.08 unch
Kansas Wheat - HRW
$/tonne change
May-12 242.48 - 13.78
Dec-12 259.57 - 13.04
Dec-13 274.45 - 9.55
Chicago Maize
$/tonne change
May-12 255.51 + 1.97
Dec-12 216.63 + 3.93
Dec-13 215.45 + 3.34
Chicago Soyabeans
$/tonne change
May-12 525.75 + 10.29
Nov-12 507.75 + 8.82
Nov-13 462.19 + 6.25
Chicago Soyameal
$/tonne change
May-12 428.46 + 0.11
Dec-12 407.52 + 0.55
Dec-13 354.84 - 0.33
Chicago Soya Oil
$/tonne change
May-12 1,250.23 + 35.50
Dec-12 1,274.26 + 35.72
Dec-13 1,256.62 + 40.12
Malaysian Palm Oil
$/tonne change
Apr-12 951.58 + 35.79
Nov-12 915.53 + 28.69
Nov-13 896.84 + 21.05


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