| 
Strategie Grains suggests a slight reduction in wheat production estimates for the EU in 2008 from 128.56Mt to 128.47, which is still well above the 111.57Mt for 2007/08. The reduction comes mainly as a result of downward revisions for yields in Rumania and area planted in Germany. These two offset increases in estimated production in Poland and Italy. At the same time, the report sees consumption up at almost 118Mt, describing a shift in demand patterns away from maize and in favour of wheat. After the recent drop in price of wheat and increase in the price of maize, the report sees the pig and poultry shifting away from maize if this price patterns continued. A 1.6Mt increase in estimated demand from the animal feed sector, more than offsets the 1Mt reduction in human consumption.
On the barley side, the report sees production at 61.54Mt, which represents a 900Kt reduction compared to last month's estimate, but remains above last season's 57.59Mt production. Dry weather in Spain resulting in a reduction of barley yield potential and smaller German planted area contributed to this decrease in production estimates. Given an estimated 2.4Mt surplus in the balance sheet, demand from the animal feed sector in favour of barley and away from maize is forecast.
| |
