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USDA published today its initial 2008/09 crop forecast. Total world grains production for 2008/09 is projected at 2,158Mt up 58Mt from last season. World trade of total grains is forecast to remain almost unchanged at 263.8Mt compared to this season's trade of262.27Mt. USDA forecast global demand of total grains to increase by 36.58Mt to 2,148Mt and ending stocks are estimated to increase to 333.8Mt, up 10.3Mt from the current season.
Wheat
USDA forecast the 2008/09 world wheat production at 656Mt, up 49.6Mt from the current season. However, this is a lot higher than the IGC forecast of 645Mt. USDA projects world wheat plantings to increase by 3.4% in 2008/09 to 224.9Mha, 2.4Mha above the IGC projection. The global average yield is forecast at 2.92t/Ha, 4.66% higher than the current season and 0.3t/Ha above the IGC forecast. USDA forecast global consumption at 642Mt, up 21.6Mt from the current season with use for food, animal feed and industrial purposes to expand. However, IGC forecast global wheat production at 630Mt, 12Mt below the USDA forecast. Trade is forecast to increase by 7.9Mt to 117.46Mt in 2008/09 and ending stocks are forecast to recover to 124Mt up 14Mt form the current ending stocks.
Maize
World maize production is forecast at 777.56Mt in 2008/09, down 2.27Mt from the current season and 15.56Mt above IGC's estimate of 762Mt. Production is forecast to decrease as the planting area is forecast to drop by 1.2Mha to 157.35Mha. USDA's planting forecast is relative high compared to IGC's forecast of 153Mha. However it should be noted that most maize still needs to be planted in the major producing countries. Agrinews reported last Tuesday that US farmers planted about 27% of their maize compared to 45% at the same time a year ago (59% 5 year average). USDA forecast global maize consumption at 788.21Mt in 2008/09 compared to 775.6Mt in 2007/08 and ending stocks are projected to drop from 109.69Mt to 99.03Mt.
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