On 17 July, Strategie Grains revised it's 2008/09 EU-27 total cereal production estimate up by 4.4Mt to 295.7Mt, an increase of nearly 40Mt from the previous year.
The 2008/09 soft wheat production was revised up by 2.7Mt to 131.7Mt, an increase of around 20Mt from the previous year. Soft wheat production was revised higher as good weather conditions during the grain-filling phase in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia increased yield potential. Furthermore, soft wheat output in Spain was revised higher as first harvest results indicate higher yields. However, these increases were partly offset by persistent dry conditions in Scandinavia, Poland and Germany.
The 2008/09 barley production was revised higher by 1.1Mt to 62.9Mt compared to 57.5Mt in 2007/08. Most of the increase comes from higher yield prospects in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Spain. The harvest in Bulgaria and Romania is expected to be close to finish. The harvest in Spain is now 3 weeks behind schedule as the harvest just started. In France, the winter barley harvest is well underway and yields are so far satisfactory. The first harvest results in Germany indicate that the yield and quality varies strongly per region.
Strategie Grains remains its 2008/09 maize production virtually unchanged at 58.7Mt, up 0.3Mt from its previous estimate and an increase of 10.8Mt on 2007/08. The coming weeks will be crucial for determining yields as the flowering phase just started.
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