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First 2010-11 Canadian Production Estimates

The first estimates of Canadian grains and oilseeds production were released this week by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada.

Wheat
Total Canadian wheat production in 2010/11 is seen down 1.8Mt on 2009/10 at 24.7Mt.  The fall in production is seen primarily as a result of much lower planted area for durum wheat combined with lower expected yields.  Agriculture and Agri-food Canada expect a durum wheat harvested area in 2010/11 of 1.79Mha, down 0.44Mha on 2009/10, with production down 1.3Mt at 4.1Mt.  However, large 2009/10 closing stocks of 2.7Mt are expected to partially offset the fall in production.

Barley, Maize and Oats
A small increase is forecast for 2010/11 maize harvested area from 1.18Mha in 2009/10 to 1.26Mha.  However, maize production is seen up by 1.44Mt at 11.0Mt in 2010/11 on much improved expected yields. The oat harvested area is also expected to increase by 0.48Mha to 1.4Mha, with oat production seen increasing 38% on 2009/10 to 3.85Mt yet still below 2008-09 crop of 4.27Mt.  2010/11 barley production is seen largely unchanged at 9.45Mt (9.52Mt in 2009/10). 

Oilseeds
Canola production is seen down 0.53Mt at 11.3Mt in 2010/11.  Despite an expected 0.38 Mha increase in harvested area to 6.4Mha, overall production is seen lower due to lower yields.   It is also expected that a forecast 9% higher domestic demand will mean 2010/10 closing Canadian canola stocks will half to 0.8Mt.  The soyabean harvested area is seen 3% higher at 1.4Mha with production increasing 4.8% to 3.7Mt due to higher expected yields.

Please note: the Canadian crop marketing year is 1st August - 31st July, except for soyabeans and maize which is 1st September to 31st August.

03 February 2010