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First USDA projections for 2014/15

 

The initial projections for 2014/15 from the USDA indicate a second consecutive surplus for maize with further re-building of stock levels possible but a finely balanced situation for the global wheat market. Record soyabean production is also forecast.

Maize

2013/14: The previous (April) forecast of record global maize production was increased by a further 5Mt this month, mainly due to a 3Mt increase to Brazilian production (now placed at 75Mt). With higher opening stocks and reduced to animal feed demand, mainly China (-2Mt), the result is a sharp uplift in global end-season stock forecasts – principally South America and China. In contrast, US maize stocks were cut due to higher export and ethanol demand numbers.

2014/15: Global production is initially forecast at similar levels to 2013/14 with higher expected yields in the US (based on historical trends), more than offsetting a lower planted area. Ukrainian production is forecast at 26Mt, nearly 5Mt down from last season’s record due to lower expected input use.

While global demand is projected at a new record, mainly to due higher animal feed demand, it is not sufficient to absorb the production figure. Consequently, a second consecutive surplus is projected – which could take global end-season stocks to a 15 year high.

Read more on HGCA’s markets pages.