Chinese crop update

High levels of production for wheat and maize, similar to those achieved in 2013/14, are currently forecast for 2014/15. Government policy significantly affects production levels of the various grains and oilseeds, and a recent policy document indicates self-sufficiency in food grains will be a priority in the years ahead.

China has had an important effect on the world markets this season, though imports of both wheat and maize have been lower than previously anticipated.

In April, the Agricultural Information Institute (AII) in China released a report, “Chinese Agricultural Outlook 2014-23” in which it discusses some of the constraints to agricultural production in China, notably limited land and water resources. The report suggests the food grains wheat and rice are the priority crops with regard to self-sufficiency objectives, and forecasts production to reach 127Mt and 204Mt respectively by 2023.

While the intention remains to maintain a high level of self-sufficiency for maize, the outlook for this crop in the longer term is less clear. USDA baseline projections indicate Chinese maize imports reaching 22.0Mt in 2023/24. However, a recent USDA report (Prospects for China’s Corn Yield Growth and Imports) shows developments in domestic yields, as well as changes to meat production and demand, could lead to significant variations around this figure in the years ahead.

Key points

– Some significant decreases to forecasts for 2013/14 wheat and maize imports

– Wheat and maize production projected to remain high in 2014/15

– Malting barley demand seen to increase

– Long-term policy objectives to maintain high self sufficiency in food grains

Read more in today’s Prospects article.